Troy's Industry Predictions for 2003

1. Linux will continue to rise in marketshare (top 35%) on servers and so will Linux on the desktop. This is pretty optimistic given the 27% marketshare it currently has. But I do think Linux will have a great year as every vendor (except ) is pushing it and customers are starting to get smart.

2. MacOS X will see a significant increase (>25% growth) in marketshare on the desktop and the Mac will be viewed as a credible desktop threat to Windows.

3. 2003 will be the defining year for the Linux vs. Microsoft war. MS will be extremely violent in its attacks (PR-wise, with lawyers, and good ‘ol hard work) but will be seen as a failure.

4. The EU will give harsher penalties to Microsoft than the US did, but will still not be tough enough.

5. 2003 will be the year of web success (meaning $$$) stories, notably subscription web services.

6. Apple will ship Chimera as their own browser.

7. 3G phones will be a flop if they’re even released widely. This is probably a gimmie, but given the amount of attention I’m sure it’ll get this year, it’s somewhat of a bold statement.

8. Microsoft will kill Xbox. They will get loads of criticism for it’s failure in the marketplace, shareholders will force it, Sony will say “duh!”, and to save face, will announce that the Xbox is being combined into an “even more ambitious” project, some all-in-one set-top box (that will never ship).

9. Wi-Fi (802.11b & g) will be huge in the US. It’ll be freely available in populated areas for free.

10. Online distribution of music will have some mild success. It won’t be huge and there won’t be one dominant mechanism, but a few things will be tried with some success and 2004 will be bright for it.

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