August 19th 2004
I like making predictions and then seeing how well I did later, so here’s my Google stock prediction: in 6 months, the stock is $50 or less.
Archive for the 'Predictions' Category
August 15th 2004
It’s reassuring to see that people aren’t being fooled by the Google IPO. An advertising company is worth $300 million max, not $30 billion.
August 15th 2004
The Hewlett-Packard/Compaq merger has been a flop. Just as I predicted two years ago.
January 13th 2003
Even Paul Andrews Says So
MSFT ass-kiss Paul Andrews makes the bold prediction that Microsoft’s monopoly is over (well, eroding for the next 10 years). He says Linux is cheaper, open source is better, the anti-monopoly backlash is helping, and itself is contributing to its own failure (”the company moves with elephantine deliberation”).
At a recent briefing, a senior Microsoft executive derided open source as a “collection of clones.” The irony appeared to be lost on him.
January 12th 2003
Predictions
One of my 2003 predictions has already been determined: #6. Apple will ship Chimera as their own browser.
I wasn’t 100% right, but I was close… they announced Safari which is their own browser but it’s not Chimera, it’s built around KHTML and not Mozilla. Surprising.
January 6th 2003
Troy’s Industry Predictions for 2003
1. Linux will continue to rise in marketshare (top 35%) on servers and so will Linux on the desktop. This is pretty optimistic given the 27% marketshare it currently has. But I do think Linux will have a great year as every vendor (except ) is pushing it and customers are starting to get smart.
2. MacOS X will see a significant increase (>25% growth) in marketshare on the desktop and the Mac will be viewed as a credible desktop threat to Windows.
3. 2003 will be the defining year for the Linux vs. Microsoft war. MS will be extremely violent in its attacks (PR-wise, with lawyers, and good ‘ol hard work) but will be seen as a failure.
4. The EU will give harsher penalties to Microsoft than the US did, but will still not be tough enough.
5. 2003 will be the year of web success (meaning $$$) stories, notably subscription web services.
6. Apple will ship Chimera as their own browser.
7. 3G phones will be a flop if they’re even released widely. This is probably a gimmie, but given the amount of attention I’m sure it’ll get this year, it’s somewhat of a bold statement.
8. Microsoft will kill Xbox. They will get loads of criticism for it’s failure in the marketplace, shareholders will force it, Sony will say “duh!”, and to save face, will announce that the Xbox is being combined into an “even more ambitious” project, some all-in-one set-top box (that will never ship).
9. Wi-Fi (802.11b & g) will be huge in the US. It’ll be freely available in populated areas for free.
10. Online distribution of music will have some mild success. It won’t be huge and there won’t be one dominant mechanism, but a few things will be tried with some success and 2004 will be bright for it.
September 23rd 2002
ex-Xbox
Xbox seeks to ring in holiday sales, but it’ll be a failure. After costing the company $2 billion, will give up and kill the Xbox group in March or April of next year. Xbox will become a joke in video game history along with Intellivision and Coleco: “Remember when Microsoft made a video game machine?”
September 8th 2002
Jaguar successful
Looking back in 3 years, Jaguar (MacOS X 10.2) will be considered the most significant OS release in history, bigger than even Win95.
